In July, US temporary help employment grew year over year for the first time since October 2022. The gain was small, roughly 3,400 jobs. But it closed a gap that had been open for nearly three years, and it arrived alongside the strongest set of quarterly results the public staffing companies have posted since the downturn began.
For most of the last three years, writing about this industry has meant writing about the rate of decline. Whether the contraction was slowing. Whether the comparisons were getting easier.
With the third quarter now underway and Q2 earnings season behind us, there is a different set of things to look at. Four independent measures of industry activity have moved in the same direction, fifteen public companies have reported results that largely corroborate them, and the summer data has held up rather than fading. None of that settles the question of where the market goes from here. It does make this the most encouraging stretch of evidence the industry has seen since 2022.
growth since Oct 2022
SIA | Bullhorn, Aug 1
Index, highest since 2023
new orders, best since 2021
What does the industry data show?
Four sources, four methodologies, and broadly the same direction.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that temporary help services employment grew in five of the first six months of 2026, a gain of 47,800 jobs, breaking the pattern of sequential declines that ran from 2023 through 2025. July's increase of 3,400 jobs was the first year-over-year growth since October 2022. Temporary employment still sits at roughly 2.5 million, well below the March 2022 peak of nearly 3.2 million, with the penetration rate at 1.58%.
The SIA | Bullhorn Staffing Indicator set a new 2026 high in the week ended August 1, with US staffing hours up 9% year over year. Commercial hours rose 10% and professional hours 8%. Industrial occupation hours were up 13%, extending a ramp that began in late April, with SIA attributing the segment's strength to manufacturing demand and data center investment. Professional demand has come from clients greenlighting projects that had been paused, alongside work tied to AI readiness and digital transformation. The indexed value for total US staffing hours reached 102, measured against a January 2019 benchmark of 100.
One segment has not participated. Office and clerical hours fell 6% year over year and sit at an indexed value of 59, by a wide margin the weakest reading in the series.
The American Staffing Association's weekly Staffing Index gives a third read on activity. For the four weeks ended July 19, temporary and contract staffing employment ran 5.2% above the same period in 2025. New starts rose 3.2% week over week, with 46% of staffing companies reporting gains in new assignments, above the 41% average so far in 2026.
ASA's own reading is the most measured of the sources here. Chief economist Noah Yosif characterized the year's employment trend as modest but consistent, while noting that cost pressures and economic uncertainty are limiting further gains, and that the index's year-over-year advantage had narrowed somewhat over the prior five weeks.
What are staffing executives themselves reporting?
The fourth measure is the one worth spending time on, because it surveys staffing firms directly rather than measuring public company results, and because it asks them what they expect rather than only what happened.
SIA's Staffing Confidence Index came in at 128.0 in July, close to May's reading of 128.8 and the highest level since 2023. Both sit well above the post-pandemic steady state, which hovered within a few points of 114 from early 2023 onward. SIA has collected data for the index since February 2020.
The index carries two components. The Current Conditions Index measures net changes in bill rates, gross margins and new orders over the prior three months, and read 124.7 in July, in line with May. Its strongest contributor was new orders, where a net 62% of staffing firms reported increases over the past three months, the highest level since late 2021.
The Half-Year Expectations Index measures anticipated changes in those same three items over the following six months. It read 131.3, above the current conditions reading, which indicates staffing executives expect the improvement to continue. SIA notes that the relatively small gap between the two suggests firms increasingly view recent gains as sustainable rather than temporary.
First, this is sentiment and expectation data, not revenue, and SIA is explicit about the distinction. Second, new orders at a net 62% is the closest thing available to a read on what privately held staffing firms are actually seeing in their own businesses, and it is the strongest such reading in nearly five years.
What did the public companies report for Q2?
The results broadly corroborate the activity data.
ManpowerGroup reported revenue up 8% as reported and 6% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS up 27% in constant currency and the Manpower brand posting its fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Adecco delivered 5.6% organic growth, also a fifth consecutive quarter, with the Americas up 12%. Korn Ferry reported fee revenue up 7% in its fiscal fourth quarter, its fifth consecutive quarter of top-line growth.
TrueBlue grew 12%, with PeopleReady up 23%. The trajectory inside the quarter is more informative than the headline: the segment exited the first quarter growing 16% and exited the second quarter growing 30%. Kforce grew 4.5%, with its technology business posting its highest year-over-year growth rate since the end of 2022 and its best sequential improvement in four years. Everforth, formerly ASGN, exceeded the high end of its guidance with revenue above $1 billion and commercial trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill at 1.2x. AMN grew 2% with adjusted EBITDA up 26%, and travel nurse and allied volume growth reached four-year highs.
RCM Technologies, which reported on August 13, grew 20% to $93.8 million, with specialty healthcare contributing $44.7 million and engineering $39.5 million. Diluted EPS rose to $0.68 from $0.50.
| Company | Revenue change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| ManpowerGroup | +8% | +6% constant currency; fifth consecutive quarter of growth for the Manpower brand |
| Adecco | +5.6% | Organic; fifth consecutive quarter, Americas up 12% |
| Korn Ferry | +7% | Fee revenue, fiscal Q4; fifth consecutive quarter of top-line growth |
| TrueBlue | +12% | PeopleReady up 23%; exited the quarter growing 30% |
| RCM Technologies | +20% | $93.8M; diluted EPS $0.68 vs. $0.50 |
| Kforce | +4.5% | Best technology growth rate since the end of 2022 |
| AMN Healthcare | +2% | Adjusted EBITDA up 26%; travel nurse volume at four-year highs |
| HireQuest | +6% | $8.1M; +16.6% adjusting for the MRINetwork divestiture |
| Randstad | +1.9% | Organic; most markets now growing, volumes improved into July |
| Robert Half | −2% | Perm placement revenue rose 4% in June and early July |
| Kelly | −5.8% | −0.6% underlying vs. −3.3% in Q1; guided to +1–2% in Q3 |
| BGSF | −5.1% | Property owners limiting discretionary spending |
| Mastech | −16.2% | Talent segment; client insourcing and exit of lower-margin roles |
| RGP | −23.8% | Fiscal Q4; one fewer billing week, Sitrick divestiture, restructuring |
HireQuest is worth reading closely, because its franchise network is composed of independently operated local staffing businesses and comes nearer than any other public reporter to describing the segment most privately held firms occupy. Reported revenue rose 6% to $8.1 million, with franchise royalties up 4.1%. Adjusting for the MRINetwork assets divested on January 1, franchise royalties rose 13.8% and total revenue rose 16.6%. System-wide sales rose 6.9% on a pro forma basis. President and CEO Rick Hermanns described the employment market as stabilizing and demand for temporary staffing as recovering.
Two firms improved without reaching growth. Kelly's headline revenue fell 5.8%, but underlying revenue excluding disclosed discrete items declined just 0.6%, against 3.3% in the first quarter, and management guided to underlying growth of 1% to 2% in the third quarter. Randstad returned to 1.9% organic growth, with management noting that most markets are now growing and volumes improved further into July.
Robert Half was the clearest exception, with revenue down 2% and diluted EPS falling from $0.41 to $0.26. Even there, permanent placement revenue rose 4% in June and in the first three weeks of July.
Three firms declined meaningfully, and the reasons are worth stating precisely, because none of them is a demand story.
RGP fell 23.8% in its fiscal fourth quarter, reflecting one fewer billing week, the divestiture of its Sitrick business, and a broader restructuring. Mastech's Talent segment fell 16.2%, driven by a 22.3% decline in billable consultants as a top-ten client continued insourcing and the company deliberately exited lower-margin positions. BGSF declined 5.1%, with property owners limiting discretionary spending amid higher interest rates and pressure on property-level cash flow, in the company's first quarter operating standalone.
Client insourcing, a divestiture, a restructuring, and a narrow end market. Not one of the declines was attributed to weak staffing demand. BGSF's own management, reporting a down quarter, cited industry commentary and Randstad's results as indications that conditions may be improving and could support a gradual recovery through the remainder of 2026.
On pricing, there are early signs of movement. Mastech's average bill rate rose to $92.17 from $88.36 a year earlier. Bill rates and gross margins are also two of the three inputs to SIA's Current Conditions Index, which held at its highest level in three years in July.
What did leadership say about acquisitions?
The most instructive exchange was public and unresolved. On May 12, HireQuest proposed acquiring the On-Demand segment of TrueBlue's PeopleReady business for $105 million in cash. On May 27, TrueBlue's board unanimously rejected it, stating the proposal materially undervalued an asset that was seeing improved territory performance and stronger weekly trends, and noting the company was entering its fourth consecutive quarter of growth. HireQuest had previously proposed acquiring all of TrueBlue's shares at $7.50 and was also rejected.
That is a buyer pricing off trailing results and a seller pricing off trajectory, argued in public, in the same quarter both companies' own numbers turned. It is the same disagreement that occurs privately on nearly every transaction that comes to market in a year when conditions are changing.
Completed activity has carried the same tone. Knox Lane's acquisition of Cross Country Healthcare closed July 21 at $13.25 per share, a 31% premium to the prior close and a 45% premium to the 90-day volume-weighted average price. Past quarter end, CHG Healthcare acquired KREWE Anesthesia, and Philips International, a real estate investment firm, entered healthcare staffing with the acquisition of the Nash Group through a newly formed M&A division.
What are we watching in the second half?
The evidence assembled here is encouraging, and more encouraging than anything the industry has produced in three years. It is also one quarter of results and a few months of weekly data. What matters now is whether it continues. A strong summer is a different thing from a trend, and the fall will say more than July did.
On the transaction side, we would like to see the second half deliver a stronger rebound than the first half produced. As we noted in our Q2 2026 Staffing M&A Report, deal volume has not moved in step with the operating data, and a durable improvement in demand should eventually show up in the number of businesses changing hands. Whether that arrives this year or next is not something the current evidence settles.
What has not changed, and what we have noted in previous reports, is that deals continue to get done throughout. Owners of quality assets, meaning firms with clean financials, durable client relationships, defensible margins and delivery that does not depend entirely on the founder, have continued to see competitive valuations and workable structure even through the hardest stretch of the downturn. That held when the data was poor, and nothing in the second quarter results suggests otherwise.
If you are trying to understand where your own business sits against this backdrop, that is the assessment we provide through the MAVO process, and it is worth having regardless of what you ultimately decide about timing.